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The Textile Magazine
MAY 2012
While the 2011-12 ending stocks-
to-use ratio is forecast to drop to one
of the lowest levels in at least 20
years, the current lower international
prices are expected to depress the
market signals that might have led to
larger planting.
USDA, however, said that “if the
Government of India increases the
minimum support price (MSP) for
cotton significantly, planting inten-
tions could shift.” Farmers have a
number of planting options, as high
prices of peanuts, soybeans, guar
and maize could prompt them to
shift away from cotton in central,
western and northern India, it added.
According to the report, Indian
farmers may decide to try crops that
are subject to fewer policy-driven
market disruptions as it is not clear
whether the Government will allow
fresh cotton exports before the start
of the 2012-13 marketing year or if
the Government will develop a new
procedure for regulating exports.
On March 5, India had banned cot-
ton exports briefly for a week. It has
decided to permit export of cotton
that was registered before the ban
period.
On cotton yields, USDA said
there is some concern within the
industry that yields have stagnated
over the past few years even as crop
productivity has increased from an
estimated 300 kg to 500 kg hectare
since the introduction of biotech cot-
ton. However, there is some concern
within the industry that yields have
stagnated over the past few years.
“The increasing prevalence of
‘sucking insects’ such as whitefly,
the need for better micronutrient and
fertilizer management, the spread
of cotton into dry-land areas and
seed quality are all cited as factors
affecting yields”, it said.
Given these ongoing challenges,
yields are forecast at the five-year
average of 500 kg per hectare, it
said, adding that India’s cotton
yields continue to be significantly
lower than the global average of
740 kg per hectare.
The advent of biotech cotton has
helped to improve the predictabil-
ity and stability of cotton as a crop
which has supported the expan-
sion of cotton area in recent years.
However, there is increasingly
widespead opinion within the cot-
ton industry that India’s cotton area
will stabilize at least until there is
another significant price or technol-
ogy shift, within a range of 10-12
million hectares.
Cotton, a predominantly
monsoon-season or kharif crop,
is planted from the end of April
through September, and harvested
from October. With the area under
Bt cotton and improved varieties
now reaching an estimated 92 per
cent of total area, prospects for
future growth in productivity are
limited as most cotton is grown un-
der rain-fed conditions and on small
farms, according to USDA.
There are an estimated 5.5 mil-
lion cotton farmers with an average
farm size of 1.5 hectares which limits
their ability to adopt capital intensive
production technologies and infra-
structure. While some potentail exists
for a further increase in yields, cotton
farmers will have to make significant
investments in production technolo-
gies for improved management of
irrigation, fertilizers, micro nutriends,
pests and diseases to boost yields
above the current levels.
India accounts for about a third of
global cotton area. Within India, two-
thirds of cotton is produced in the cen-
tral cotton growing zone, in the States
of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh,
Gujarat and Odisha where much of the
crop is rain fed.
The northern zone, which consists of
Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, pro-
duces cotton under irrigated conditions
and accounts for about 15 per cent
of production. In the South, Andhra
Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu
account for 20 per cent of production.
The central and southern zones typi-
cally grow long duration cotton that al-
lows farmers to reap multiple pickings
or harvests.
- PTI Economic Service
w
cotton scene